David Johnson seems to be a consensus Top-5 pick in all formats this year. People keep thinking that he will automatically return to 2016 form. I am here to explain why DJ is not a Top-5 pick for me, and why you should avoid his hype and ADP!
While you might read this title and think I'm crazy, please read below. The Cardinals are a new, different team going into 2018, as the cleared house. Let's talk about my biggest issue first: the new HC and OC. I'm not going to talk about new HC Steve Wilks too much, because HE DOESN'T COACH the offense NOR call plays. He has no impact on the offense! Now, the new OC: Mike McCoy. Historically, he has never had a great running game nor a great RB! In 2017, Denver had the 3rd LEAST rushing TDs, and they didn't produce a Top-17 RB. In 2016, the Chargers had the 5th least rushing yards, the 3rd least TDs, and the 6th least attempts. Even when he had a great team (2012 Broncos, lost in AFCD), nobody on his team had more than 700 yards or 3 rushing TDs. He is NOT a RB-friendly coach!
Fast forward, let's talk about the difference in offenses. The OL in 2016 was ranked the FOURTH best run-blockers by @profootballfocus . In 2018, PFF ranked them 27th. That's a big difference! Carson Palmer threw for the 5th most passing yards in the league in 2016. I HIGHLY doubt Bradford or Rosen will do that. In 2016, the Cardinals scored the 6th most TDs in the NFL. They aren't even close to a Top-10 offense anymore. In 2016, Palmer 'dumped' the ball off to DJ 48.2 times. The last time Bradford played, he dumped the ball off 25.3 times. The efficiency of the offense won't be there. The O-Line won't help him as much. His offense will be worse than ever. His production in the receiving game might go DOWN! His coach has never had a successful track record with RBs. DJ has too many risks and worries for me to be drafted in the Top-5!.
Thanks for reading this far if you did. Unless he falls to 8-9 in my draft, I'll stay away from him this year... take this advice and use it to your advantage!
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